Research
3 papers
EXPECTED VALUE
The Longshot Trap: Why Larger Cross-Book Edges Predict Worse Outcomes
Using 1,016,310 de-vigged moneyline odds across 21,688 games, we show that the relationship between edge size and win rate is monotonically negative. Small edges win ~60%. Edges above 3% win ~28%.
Mar 2026 · 1M+ odds, 4 sports, 2 seasonsRead →
MARKET STRUCTURE
When Do Sportsbooks Disagree?
A one-week microstructure study of 6,439 cross-book pricing discrepancies across 161 events. During peak hours, disagreements resolve in ~13 minutes. After 7 PM, the average duration jumps to 60-90 minutes.
Mar 2026 · 6,439 discrepancies, 161 eventsRead →
PRICING
The Vig Tax: A Quantitative Survey of Sportsbook Margins
What 40 sportsbooks actually charge on moneylines. The cheapest (Matchbook, 0.93%) and most expensive (Fliff, 6.82%) differ by 7x. Pinnacle charges twice the vig on NCAAB as on MLB.
Mar 2026 · 1M+ odds, 40 sportsbooksRead →
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